Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 2981 · SJU → MCO
departs 7:17 AM AT · arrives 10:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
7am departures from SJU are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.