F9 3450 · LAS → ELP

departs 4:48 PM PT · arrives 7:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3450 · LAS → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?