Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4003 · BWI → MCO
departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 25%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
16%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.