Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4192
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 4192 · DFW → MCO
departs 9:53 PM CT · arrives 1:42 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.