Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4410 · ATL → IAD
departs 3:13 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.