F9 4464 · DEN → DFW

departs 4:12 PM MT · arrives 7:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4464 · DEN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?