Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 44
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 44 · ORD → CUN
departs 6:11 AM CT · arrives 10:01 AM EST
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CUN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CUN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CUN (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.