Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4537 · BWI → ATL
departs 9:16 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 50%
Fri 10/30 46%
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.