Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4937
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4937 · RDU → DTW
departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 20%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.