F9 4978 · IAH → MCO

departs 4:15 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4978 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?