G4 1196 · SFB → PIA

departs 7:26 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ 7am departures from SFB are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

PIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1196 · SFB → PIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIA?