Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
G4 1211 · AVL → SFB
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.