G4 1220 · SGF → SFB

departs 4:22 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF

Weather at each end

SGF (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1220 · SGF → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?