G4 169 · TYS → SFB

departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 169 · TYS → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?