G4 1788 · SFB → ABE

departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ABE more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABE?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ABE at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABE

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

ABE (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1788 · SFB → ABE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABE?