G4 1881 · SFB → AVL

departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 10:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from SFB are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

AVL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1881 · SFB → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?