G4 226 · AVL → PIE

departs 1:07 PM ET · arrives 3:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIE (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 226 · AVL → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?