G4 2300 · AZA → MOT

departs 3:06 PM MT · arrives 7:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MOT?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from AZA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MOT (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2300 · AZA → MOT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MOT?