G4 241 · AVL → SFB

departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 7:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 241 · AVL → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?