G4 2822 · PIA → SFB

departs 9:47 AM CT · arrives 1:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2822 · PIA → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?