G4 2845 · SBN → SFB

departs 11:42 AM ET · arrives 2:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2845 · SBN → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?