G4 2900 · DSM → SFB

departs 12:41 PM CT · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at SFB that day

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ G4's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFB (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2900 · DSM → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?