Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2920
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
G4 2920 · SFB → MDT
departs 11:02 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at SFB that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from SFB are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
MDT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.