Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2958
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
G4 2958 · SFB → ELM
departs 3:07 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at SFB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from SFB are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.