G4 436 · DSM → AZA

departs 7:54 AM CT · arrives 8:59 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ DSM is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AZA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 436 · DSM → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?