G4 447 · AZA → DSM

departs 9:50 AM MT · arrives 2:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DSM is prone to delays

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 447 · AZA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?