Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 4927 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

G4 4927 · IAD → TVC

departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TVC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 4927 · IAD → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?