G4 551 · GRR → PGD

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 5:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PGD

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from GRR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PGD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 551 · GRR → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?