G4 714 · AZA → FSD

departs 4:24 PM MT · arrives 9:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at FSD that day

↑ Arrivals into FSD at that hour are often late

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 714 · AZA → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?