Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
G4 729 · AZA → SBN
departs 2:42 PM MT · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AZA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
AZA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AZA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.