G4 841 · TOL → PGD

departs 12:19 PM ET · arrives 3:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at PGD that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from TOL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TOL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TOL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PGD (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 841 · TOL → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?