G7 4468 · IAD → BUF

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4468 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?