G7 4575 · PHL → IAD

departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4575 · PHL → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?