Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 339
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
IB 339 · MAD → MCO
departs 4:31 PM CET · arrives 9:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 20%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.