Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 340
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
IB 340 · MCO → MAD
departs 9:58 PM ET · arrives 11:34 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 15%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.