Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 364
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
IB 364 · DFW → MAD
departs 10:41 PM CT · arrives 1:59 PM CET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.