KL 644 · JFK → AMS

departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 10:38 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 644 · JFK → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?