Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
LH 451 · LAX → FRA
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 2:22 PM CET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.