Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
LH 458 · MUC → SFO
departs 4:21 PM CET · arrives 7:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 32%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MUC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.