LH 489 · SEA → MUC

departs 4:06 PM PT · arrives 10:08 AM CET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MUC?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

MUC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 489 · SEA → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?