Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3513 · DFW → FSM
departs 8:20 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.