MQ 3687 · DFW → MTJ

departs 11:13 AM CT · arrives 12:30 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MTJ more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTJ?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into MTJ at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MTJ (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3687 · DFW → MTJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTJ?