MQ 3687 · MTJ → DFW

departs 1:18 PM MT · arrives 4:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MTJ

Weather at each end

MTJ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3687 · MTJ → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?