Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3922
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 3922 · DFW → HOU
departs 10:36 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.