Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3933 · XNA → ORD
departs 7:51 AM CT · arrives 9:46 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.