Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 3963 · AVL → ORD
departs 11:26 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.