Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4051 · SDF → DFW
departs 10:56 AM ET · arrives 12:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.