Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4054 · DFW → ACT
departs 8:48 AM CT · arrives 9:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACT more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ACT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ACT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.