Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4165 · MCI → DFW
departs 7:23 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 32%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.