Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4197
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4197 · DFW → SAV
departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAV at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAV (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.